CARACAS- Venezuela will not emerge from a deep recession that is already a year long before mid-2010, a senior government source said on Thursday, despite a currency devaluation aimed at stimulating the economy.
"In the first quarter there will be a contraction and the technical studies indicate this will not change until the third quarter of the year," the source, who has close knowledge of economic policy, told Reuters.
Officials had previously said South America's top oil exporter would pull out of recession in the second quarter.
President Hugo Chavez ordered a steep devaluation of the bolivar currency in January in a bid to stimulate domestic industry and fill government coffers before parliamentary elections in September.
The government forecasts the economy will grow at least 0.5 percent this year and Chavez has predicted it will grow by up to 1 percent. Many economists, however, foresee a contraction.
Chavez has nationalized large chunks of oil-dependent Venezuela's economy as part of his aim to build a socialist society.
But his popularity has recently been hurt by major shortages of electricity and water triggered by a drought and bad planning, which have slashed production at industrial sites and risk further slowing the economy's recovery.
Venezuela's economy fell into recession in the second quarter of 2009 and shrank 3.3 percent during the year. In the fourth quarter the recession deepened to 5.8 percent.
Venezuela's government blames the downturn on the world financial crisis and falling oil income because of OPEC mandated output cuts to tackle lower prices.
"We doubt that the recent devaluation of the bolivar will do much to boost growth," said Capital Economics analyst Neil Shearing, calling Venezuela the region's "laggard" in a research note on Wednesday.
Shearing said Venezuela's small manufacturing sector would likely shrink further in coming months as government price restrictions squeeze production.
Figures released on Tuesday show imports collapsed by 40 percent in the fourth quarter, while the manufacturing sector shrank 7 percent.
© 2010 Reuters. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by caching, framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters.
|
