KABUL - Abdullah Abdullah stood before a roomful of supporters at a hotel here last week, slamming the failings of the Afghan government like a man still on the campaign trail -- which, the presidential candidate insists, he is.
"It doesn't seem to me we can avoid a second round," Abdullah, President Hamid Karzai's former foreign minister, said in an interview, repeating what has become his refrain since Afghanistan's fraud-marred election in August.
Abdullah may yet be proved right. Though he polled about half as much of the vote as Karzai's 54 percent, according to a preliminary tally, an ongoing recount by a U.N.-backed commission could disqualify enough fraudulent ballots to push Karzai below the majority he needs and force a runoff.
But many Western officials doubt that will happen -- a view some observers suspect Abdullah shares despite his assertions to the contrary.
And how he reacts to a Karzai victory, analysts say, could determine whether Afghanistan erupts in clashes between Abdullah's Tajik supporters and Karzai's Pashtun followers or whether it calmly transitions to a coalition government -- albeit one potentially hamstrung by division.
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