PARIS - Hyperactive French President Nicolas Sarkozy has learned to chill and reduced his media exposure in an effort to reverse his disastrous approval ratings and regain the political initiative.
But on the third anniversary of his emphatic 2007 election victory, the bleak economic outlook and depressed mood amongst voters suggests that even a newlook Sarkozy will struggle to hold on to power at the next presidential ballot in 2012.
"Ugly birthday to you, mister president," BVA pollsters wrote in a commentary on Thursday, unleashing another battery of dire readings for Sarkozy, including the fact that 69 percent of French people judge his achievements to be "bad".
The president's unpopularity was laid bare in March local elections, which saw his Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party win control of just one out of 22 mainland French regions.
Political analysts said Sarkozy's restless character, his overbearing presence on every major issue of the day and his soap-opera personal life, contributed to the savage defeat.
Not for the first time in his three-year reign, Sarkozy has looked to address his failings and he has been remarkably quiet in recent weeks on hot issues such as the Greek debt crisis, the volcanic ash disruption and a move to ban the Islamic veil.
"Sarkozy is trying to reinvent himself as a statesman, but I think it might be coming too late," said Jacques Rupnik, head of research at Paris's prestigious Sciences Po university.
"He is a victim of the circumstances and I am not sure if the economic situation will change quickly enough for him to be able recover his impetus," he added.
Although his new, understated style does seem to have halted Sarkozy's precipitous decline in the opinion polls, his ratings are still significantly worse than those of his three predecessors at the same stage in their presidency.
"There is a level of disappointment that we have never seen before with another president of the republic," said Brice Teinturier, head of the TNS-Sofres pollsters.
Elected on the back of a bold reform programme, Sarkozy's promises have been blown off course by the financial crisis and his slogan "work more to earn more" sounds extremely hollow.
The unemployment rate has risen above the psychologically painful 10 percent level, the deficit is due to hit a record 8 percent of gross domestic product this year and economic growth remains anaemic, exposing France's lack of competitiveness.
"We are going to have growth blocked around one percent for some time, public debt will be around 100 percent of GDP in 2012 and unemployment at 10 percent," said economist Nicolas Baverez.
"All this is generating a lot of political and social anxiety which is causing a rise in populism and xenophobia."
Senior politicians scoff at the idea that France could fall victim to the sort of market meltdown afflicting Greece and the government is attaching much significance to an ongoing reform of state pensions to prove its determination to cut spending.
But Sarkozy's supporters fear a union backlash over pensions, which could translate into paralysing street protests, and say the prospects for 2012, which had appeared sunny only a year ago, now look extremely difficult.
"When you go around you meet a lot of people who say they won't vote for Sarkozy again. By contrast, I have yet to meet any new converts to our cause," said one glum minister, who declined to be named
Government allies are particularly alarmed by signs the opposition Socialist party is finally overcoming its deep, seemingly perennial, internal divisions under the guidance of Martine Aubry, and is shaping up as a credible alternative.
"2012 is going to be difficult if the left sorts out its leadership problem," said a very senior UMP politician, who again did not want to be named.
"The basic problem is that France and Europe are in a very bad shape, with monstrous deficits, and neither the right or the left is up to the challenge," he added.
In the months ahead, Sarkozy is likely to maintain his low profile, while pushing his ministers into the frontline to take the flak in time-honoured French presidential fashion.
He will also almost certainly shake up both the cabinet and his inner circle of Elysee advisors, whose hapless manoeuvrings earlier this year aimed at limiting the fallout from rumours over Sarkozy's marriage only exacerbated the problem.
But all this might carry little weight with a grumpy electorate that wants to see Sarkozy fulfil his promise of a break with the past and is unimpressed by data suggesting France fared better than most during the recent downturn.
"Objectively speaking, the situation is much less bad than the French make it out to be ... but there has been a loss of confidence in the government, the president and his team," said respected French sociologist Alain Touraine.
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