Analysis: Political Agreement in Somalia Despite All

Wednesday, 14 Sep 2011 09:07 AM

 

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In a new analysis, LIGNET.com discusses how leaders in Mogadishu have agreed on a roadmap for transition that could establish Somalia’s first central government in 20 years. However, divisions and violence threaten to hamstring international efforts.

After a three-day Consultative Meeting in Mogadishu, Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG) laid out an ambitious plan on September 5th to establish a representative government within a year. The roadmap for transition will give Somali authorities until August of next year to adopt a new constitution and conduct parliamentary elections. Leaders also addressed matters such as national reconciliation, improving security, and bolstering famine relief efforts during the three-day conference, according to the Sydney Morning Herald.

Last week’s agreement marks a pivotal point for the TFG, Somalia, and international efforts in the country. The TFG’s poor track record has left most Somalis “disillusioned” as militancy and radical Islamic insurgency have increased over the past several years despite promises of stability and peace, explains Stephanie Hanson of the Council on Foreign Relations. Many in and around Mogadishu feel caught between TFG and the al Qaeda linked al-Shabaab, two equally unfavorable forces. However, given that choice, many have and continue to choose al-Shabaab because of the stability the militant group is capable of providing. However, if the TFG is able to follow through on its promises, it will undoubtedly bolster the new government’s credibility and likely prove instrumental in garnering support in Mogadishu and beyond.

Click HERE to read the full analysis of this story from LIGNET.com , a new Washington, DC-based intelligence analysis and forecasting service.

© Copyright 2014 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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